Global trade reached a record $35 trillion in 2025, but the momentum that carried into early 2026 is now coming under pressure from shipping disruption, higher energy costs and rising geopolitical strain. In its latest Global Trade Update, UN Trade and Development said goods and services trade expanded by about $2.5 trillion last year, with developing economies in East Asia and Africa helping drive much of the increase.

UNCTAD said the headline growth masks a more fragile environment beneath the surface. In a parallel news release, the agency warned that disruption to shipping routes and energy flows is raising import costs and tightening financial conditions for many developing economies even while trade figures remain comparatively strong.

One immediate pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz, where conflict and maritime disruption have become a direct threat to transport costs and inflation. In a separate rapid assessment on Hormuz disruption, UNCTAD said the near-closure of the route is straining energy flows, raising prices and worsening financial stress in more vulnerable economies. The Guardian also reported that shipping through the corridor remains highly uncertain even after ceasefire announcements, with vessel operators and energy markets still pricing in major risk.

The uncertainty is being felt well beyond the Gulf. The Financial Times reported earlier this year that Singapore, often treated as a bellwether for global trade, warned that rising global fragility would test economies that depend heavily on trade, shipping and finance. Together, the reports point to the same conclusion: the world entered 2026 with strong trade data, but the conditions supporting that growth are becoming more unstable.