LONDON ? Commercial aviation entered 2026 with strong passenger demand, but the financing outlook for aircraft grew more complicated as delivery delays, fuel-price volatility and geopolitical conflict pushed risk back into leasing and investment decisions.

In its 2026 Aviation Market Outlook, Cirium Ascend Consultancy said the sector still had momentum but faced persistent supply-side constraints and a far less forgiving macro environment for airlines, lessors and financiers.

Those risks became clearer as conflict in the Middle East widened. In a separate Cirium analysis, the consultancy said airspace closures, higher fuel prices and weaker demand could all feed directly into aircraft values and finance decisions if the conflict dragged on.

Aviation Week reached a similar conclusion from the maintenance side. Its report on potential MRO headwinds said the market could absorb short-term turbulence, but longer conflict would begin to alter airline spending, asset-use decisions and aftermarket demand.

The combined picture for 2026 was not one of collapse. It was one of narrower margins for error, where financing and fleet decisions depend much more heavily on how quickly supply chains improve and whether geopolitical shocks remain temporary.